The Fragility of Ceasefires
The Middle East remains a powder keg. While a US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza offers a "rare moment of respite," it is extremely fragile. Violence continues to flare, with Israeli attacks killing Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, undermining the truce and fueling radicalization. The lack of a comprehensive political framework suggests that this is merely a pause in a protracted conflict rather than a step toward resolution.
Syrian Instability and Regional Realignment
Syria is witnessing renewed chaos. The withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from Aleppo and subsequent clashes with the Syrian transitional government indicate that the civil war has mutated rather than ended. The use of kamikaze drones and the intervention of US forces against ISIL remnants highlight the persistent security vacuum that continues to draw in regional and global powers.
Unexpected diplomatic threads are also emerging. Reports of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar visiting Somaliland suggest a strategy to cultivate peripheral alliances, possibly to counter Iranian influence in the Horn of Africa or to secure Red Sea shipping lanes against Houthi threats. Meanwhile, Iran continues to grapple with internal dissent, with protests in Kurdish areas and police casualties indicating that the regime's grip, while firm, is contested.
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